Bitcoin Forecast – March 2024

Series Introduction

This is my first entry in a series of posts that will be published on the 1st of each month. You can tune in monthly to see my predictions for the next month, along with accuracy results and analysis on the previous month's forecast. My plans are to continue to improve my forecasts as time goes by – The only barrier being the spare time needed for me to do so.

Note: I am fully aware that attempting a 30-day forecast of any asset's monetary value is a lofty goal. Time in a market is better than trying to "time the market", in my opinion. If it was as easy to predict something like this then everyone would do it. This is merely a fun exercise for me to apply various forecasting and decision-modeling methods to a personal interest of mine 🙂

My Background in Forecasting

I studied Economics in college, with an emphasis in Business Analytics. There I gained a passion for Economics, Econometrics, Decision Modeling, and Data Science. After college, I got to work on a number of interesting and high-profile projects that exercised and grew this skillset – Many of which incorporated time series analysis and forecasting. 

About three years ago I transitioned into a support role, deploying and maintaining MLOps tooling and infrastructure for my Data Scientist and Machine Learning Engineer counterparts. Because of this, I didn't get to directly practice and enjoy my skillset in statistical modeling and machine learning as much as I used to. Fortunately, I've had some spare time recently to enjoy practicing this skillset again in combination with one of my other interests – Bitcoin.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
- George Box (British Statistician)

The above graph shows three things:

1. A rolling, 90-day historical Bitcoin price in USD (e.g., The black line)

2. A 30-day forecast of the Bitcoin price in USD (e.g., The red line)

3. A 95% confidence interval, with 2.5% and 97.5% thresholds (e.g., The dotted lines)

The forecast's data can be found here.

Forecast vs Actual

Forecast Accuracy 

Previous reports: 

• No data yet...

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